The game in question being Warhammer 40k.

I am writing this as a sort of connected thing with the electronic fuckton of rumours that have sprung up recently.

Is it a rumour recap? No.

Is it a rear-view mirror thing ove r5th edition? Nope.

I will try to ascertain what can can know for sure about the coming 6 months in the world of Warhammer 40k from what has actually happened! No rumouring, just my own conclusions.

First, I want to say that if the rumour about 6th having Allies and doing away with the FOC are true, I will be a happy camper. Secondly, I want a new Chaos dex. yes I do.

So, onwards.

What do we know, first and foremost?

Well, we do know, from the people of GW themselves, that writing a Codex, with the accompanying concepts and playtesting (because GW does play-test, just not in the way tournament players think and want them to), takes a rough 2 years. The Codexes have to be printed, stocked and shipped, that adds another 6 months or so before release. So, this means that Codex: Necrons was begun in the spring of 2009, just before Codex: Imperial Guard iirc. To give you an idea.

Making a new edition of the game itself takes even longer. I heard it said on Kirby's 3++ Is the New Black blog that GW releases a new game with each edition, basically, but I have a hard time agreeing with that sentiment, as the core mechanics in one way or another have remained the fricking same since 1999, when 3rd edition was released. What changes is subsets of rules, which Assault being the big one here, but the basic structure has always been the same. This does affect how you play the game, and how lists are put together, and what tactics are viable and which aren't (vehicle spam wasn't even on the mentla chart back in 3rd, but now everybody and their space monkey run a mechanized list, wonder why?).

So, it can be safe to assume initial brainstorming for the next edition and what to fix starts as soon as the last one hits the shelves and the feedback from tournaments starts to come in.

This means that 6th edition has been in the works since 2008. It also makes it easier to understand codexes like C:CSM, which was released late 4th and had such a focus on cheap transports and plenty Troops options, despite being hamstrung by the streamlining ideal of the design studio at the time.

As you might've noticed, I make the assumption that GW's design studio knows that the fuck they are doing, even Matt Ward. guy might write awful fluff, but he gets down decent rules and if the next edition is just round the corner, it explains Grey Knights being seemingly over-powered. Why?

This is where we enter the realm of probabilities.

We take the last three codexes released (you could count Blood Angels too, as it does have a flyer, the Storm Raven, that showed up a year later in the GK codex): Dark Eldar, Grey Knights and Necrons. One new army, technically, and two armies with codexes dating back to 3rd edition. One army of psykers, with a new psychic level system in place, and two with no psykers whatsoever.

Two written by Matt Ward, one by Phil Kelly (Codex: sisters of battle was released as a WD dex, and penned by Matt Ward and Robin Cruddace, who hasn't written anything since the 'Nid dex... I think they moved him over to Warhammer Fantasy, not sure, so please correct me there, but he wrote the Tomb Kings army book).

Apart from the Space Wolves and Tyranids 3rd wave and the Necron second wave, there have been few new releases for Wh40k this spring. The most recent was the slew of FineCasted Space Marine that got relased to Advance Order a day or so ago.

No 40k news means something is afoot, imho.

Consider that out of the last three dexes, only one has had psykers at all. This means new psychics rules, in line most likely with what was seen in the GK dex.

The four last dexes has had flyers aplenty, five if you count the still to be released Harpy in the Tyranid dex. Space Wolves had none, so the rules might've been in the air still when that was written. Imperial Guard did have the Valkyries, which indicates that perhaps Cruddace was the one that proposed it. Nevertheless, GK had one flyer, the aforementioned Stormraven and DE and Necs had two. DE has seen the release of one. Necrons are still waiting for theirs.

The last two codexes have been written by Matt Ward. As Cruddace isn't on the team, and Jervis writes army books for Warhammer fantasy now (together with Jeremy Vetock), I think it is a reasonble thing to say that Phil Kelly is behind the next codex, whatever that is. The rumour mill says Chaos, I say I believe it when I see it.

Why Kelly? Because apart from Dreadfleet and the recent Deathworlds expansion in WD, there has been zippety from the man. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Not a word of news, apart from the standard platitudes to sell the new minis for Space Wolves, and that could've been written late 2011, which it most likely was.

Remember what I said about there being a 6 month gap between finished dex and release? That'd mean the Chaos dex, if that is it being next, is already at the printers, same with 6th edition WH40k. It's done. Perhaps GK was a final test to see how the new psychic rules held up? A little too well, I think.

This has been ranty, I apologize, but to summarize my thoughts:

It seems pretty set 6th edition will be released to time with the Olympic Games in London, and that Chaos will be the first codex released. These are rumours though.

What we can know is that 6th edition will most certainly feature heavily tweaked psychic rules, more flying things, perhaps shorter games (if Deathworlds' rules are ANYTHING to go by) and that the next codex, maybe even the main rule book, will primarily be penned by Mr. Phil Kelly.

The lion's share of that assumption comes from a discussion I had with GW Warsaw's store chief that I had when he visited Sweden just prior to it opening in Warsaw. He said, as a personal acquaintance of Kelly, that the man was soaked in work and almost close to breaking point. This was before Codex Necrons was released and just after Dreadfleet.

I can offer no sound byte. You have to take my word for it. Sorry.

But those are my thoughts.